Sunday electoral college analysis

Last week I introduced a new series here at The Richmond Democrat. I will be surveying the latest state polls from Pollster.com, adding up the electoral votes, and presenting the totals to you. To review, my methodology is simple: I look at the Pollster.com data, make note of which candidate is ahead in each state's polls, and award electoral votes accordingly. I award all tied states to John S. McCain. To the extent I depart from this method for any reason, I will disclose it and explain my reasons for doing so under the heading "Special Assumptions." Now, with my reasoning and general assumptions out of the way, let's look at this week's numbers. The electoral college projection for July 20, 2008 is:

Barack H. Obama - 328 Electoral Votes

John S. McCain - 207 Electoral Votes

If the election was held today, it looks as though Barack H. Obama would win by a healthy margin in the electoral college. While the totals have not changed, there has been a major new development in this race that could have a tremendous impact on its outcome. I will be posting on this new development later this evening.

Special Assumptions for July 20, 2008:

(1) The latest polls in North Dakota suggest a tie between Obama and McCain. I have therefore awarded North Dakota's 3 electoral votes to John S. McCain.

(2) The latest poll in South Carolina suggests that Bob Barr will siphon off sufficient support from John McCain to throw the state to Barack Obama. I regard this poll with some skepticism, however, so I am awarding South Carolina's 8 electoral votes to John McCain, even though this latest poll suggests he may lose narrowly to Obama.

Pollster.com: Warner leads Gilmore by 26.2 points

For the most part, Virginians are exceptionally courteous people. It doesn't surprise me then, that many Virginians on the conservative side of the Virginia blogosphere are extending Jim Gilmore the courtesy of pretending that Gilmore is still a viable candidate. By all accounts, yesterday's debate at the Homestead was a non-event. Neither Warner nor Gilmore made any critical mistakes or landed any meaningful hits. The race remains pretty much the same as it was on Friday: with Mark Warner leading Jim Gilmore by a shocking 26.2%.

Courtesy is a good thing, so long as it doesn't lead to denial.

Be sure to visit Pollster.com for a wide range of political polling data.

Republican adviser to the McCain campaign: "We're fucked."

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki's admission that he backs Barack Obama's plans for a gradual withdrawal from Iraq over 16 months has rocked the Republican Party and John McCain's campaign back on it's heels. Here's Marc Ambinder:

This could be one of those unexpected events that forever changes the way the world perceives an issue. Iraq's Prime Minister agrees with Obama, and there's no wiggle room or fudge factor. This puts John McCain in an extremely precarious spot: what's left to argue? to argue against Maliki would be to predicate that Iraqi sovereignty at this point means nothing. Obviously, our national interests aren't equivalent to Iraq's, but... Maliki isn't listening to the generals on the ground...but the "hasn't been to Iraq" line doesn't work here.

So how will the McCain campaign respond?

(Via e-mail, a prominent Republican strategist who occasionally provides advice to the McCain campaign said, simply, "We're fucked." No response yet from the McCain campaign . . .[1]

McCain has already flip-flopped and adopted Obama's policy for Afghanistan as his own. Al-Maliki's statements mean that McCain can no longer stand by his plans for a "hundred-year war" in Iraq.

Meet Bob Barr, Libertarian for President

I think Bob Barr is going to add a very interesting element to this year's election. The mainstream media has, for the most part, ignored Bob Barr, but I think that's a mistake. I think Bob Barr could have a real impact. Bob Barr could even qualify for one or more of the presidential debates, which would definitely add something different to the mix. Bob Barr has been critical of both John McCain and Barack Obama.

Here's some video of Bob Barr.









Be sure to visit Bob Barr's website by clicking here.

Mark Udall is crushing Bob Schaffer

Mark Udall is crushing Bob Schaffer in Colorado . . .


. . . and all the silly debate tricks in the world won't change that fact. Mark Udall is going to mop the floor with Bob Schaffer, and Barack Obama will carry Colorado in November.

McCain compromises the security of Obama's Iraq trip

More proof John McCain is unfit to be president--today he gave away the timing of Barack Obama's trip to Iraq, potentially compromising Obama's safety during his trip:

"I believe that either today or tomorrow -- and I'm not privy to his schedule -- Sen. Obama will be landing in Iraq with some other senators" who make up a congressional delegation, McCain said at a Republican fund-raiser.[1]

McCain's horrified advisers immediately began backpeddling and trying to cover up the gaffe. They immediately recognized the import of McCain's remarks.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think McCain was deliberately trying to put Obama in harm's way. I just think it's clear that McCain doesn't think before he speaks.

We need a president that thinks before he speaks.

Afghanistan: John McCain's greatest flip-flop of all

Nowadays, John McCain believes that we should win in Iraq before we address the situation in Afghanistan: that wasn't always the case. Here's John McCain and his friend Joe Lieberman on "Meet the Press" back on October 21, 2001:

RUSSERT: Would you have any problem expanding President Bush's orders to the CIA to go after Osama bin Laden to include Saddam Hussein?

LIEBERMAN: Well, I leave that to the president. But as a matter of principle and morality, of course not.

RUSSERT: Senator McCain?

MCCAIN: I think Joe's right.

And I would just like to add one additional point. I believe that we will succeed. We will endure in Afghanistan. We will take out bin Laden, and we will take out the Taliban. And then we've got a major challenge of a stable government, but...

RUSSERT: How long will that take?

MCCAIN: I think the longer we give the impression that we're there for, the shorter it'll be. Because, as you quoted from articles earlier, they think they can outlast us. I don't think they can this time.

RUSSERT: Do you believe the American people will continue to stay with that campaign?

MCCAIN: Absolutely, and I think the president is doing a great job in leading America and making us aware of the challenge we face.

But I think the real crunch is going to come after Afghanistan is settled and then we have to address the other countries, including Iraq. That's where the coalition may not be so strong. That's where people like the Saudis and the French and many others may have real reservations.

And so, we're going to have to be steadfast. And again, the president will continue and, I think, very eloquently stated, countries that harbor these terrorist organizations will be held responsible, so it'll be their choice, not ours. It'll be their choice.

RUSSERT: But after Afghanistan, you'd have no problem going after Saddam Hussein?

MCCAIN: If Saddam Hussein continues to develop weapons of mass destruction, the means to deliver them, there are ties to terrorist organizations, then we have to give him his choice. We have to give the Syrians a choice. We have to give other countries a choice. Because we've got to--if anyone thinks that, just by taking care of bin Laden, we've taken care of the problem, they obviously are not aware of the extent of the challenge we have.

Of course, the Republican Party didn't wait until after we had caught or killed Osama Bin Laden. They didn't wait until we had won in Afghanistan. Instead, the Republicans lied us into a war with a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 and had no weapons of mass destruction.

Now we have two wars underway in Asia and our troops in Afghanistan are being picked off because the reinforcements they need are tied down in Iraq. It's a shame that John McCain didn't stand up and show some leadership when George W. Bush was lying us into the War in Iraq. If John McCain can't stand up when it matters, how can he claim to be a leader?

Hat Tip: Slinkerwink at Daily Kos

Kate Obenshain embarassed on FOX

Wow, if you ever wondered how it was that Kate Obenshain (Griffin) flew the Republican Party of Virginia in to the ground, just watch this video.



David Sirota just crushes Obenshain. Even on FOX News, where the moderator is doing everything she can to help Kate Obenshain, she still gets crushed. You can tell that the producer has cut this segment short; after seeing Sirota crush Obenshain, the moderator ends the interview quickly by going to commercial.

Hat Tip: The Grey Havens at RK

Obama's Richmond office grand opening this Saturday!

July 19th at 10:00 AM! For more information and to RSVP, click here.

More details to follow, but the campaign office address is:

Richmond Obama for President
1208 W. Marshall Street
Richmond, VA 23220

This is a great location! It's convenient to the Fan, to Virginia Commonwealth University, and Virginia Union University. A lot of hard work is going to get done at this location, as we work to carry Virginia for Barack Obama!

There is also an office opening nearby in Petersburg:

Petersburg Obama for President
23 W. Old Street
Petersburg, VA 23803

For a list of other Obama events in central Virginia click here.

How out of touch is John McCain?

Keep in mind, this is from before the Phil Gramm meltdown. John McCain is wildly out of touch with the plight of ordinary Americans.

It's three AM, and John McCain has an e-mail . . .

Phil Gramm's ties to terrorism

Keep in mind, John McCain's economic policy is pretty much whatever Phil Gramm tells him it is.

John McCain's "worst week ever" ends with Republican gay sex scandal

Last week was a disaster for John McCain. It began last Monday with him denouncing Social Security as a "disgrace," then having his own campaign try to pull back that remark, only to have him repeat it again the next day. This showed a real lack of message control and will cost McCain support among older voters.

Next, McCain's economic adviser, Phil Gramm, insulted every U.S. citizen when he called us a "Nation of Whiners" and said that the current economic troubles we face are nothing more than a figment of our collective imagination. McCain had previously delegated Gramm to speak on his behalf on matters of economics and domestic policy. Now McCain had to back peddle and denied his close conections with Gramm and his policies.

McCain bungled his response to the Gramm scandal, then bungled a response to a question about women's health insurance coverage triggered by a remark from another of McCain's key surrogates.

Finally, at the very end of the week came the news that one of McCain's campaign co-chairs, Attorney General Troy King of Alabama, had been caught in bed with another man by his wife and had been kicked out of his house and served with divorce papers. Troy King is trying to deny the story, but the McCain campaign reacted predictably, purging all references to Troy King from its websites, which is pretty much an admission of the story's accuracy.

Was this the "worst week ever" for McCain, or can he turn in an even worse performance in the coming weeks? It's hard to imagine how he could bungle worse than last week, but McCain has been exceeding all expectations this year.

Great speech by Hillary Clinton

I really enjoyed this speech by Hillary Clinton. I think she's working hard to unify the Democratic Party behind Barack Obama.



I think Hillary Clinton is reaching out to her former supporters, the so-called PUMAs, who are now betraying everything Hillary stood for. There are only two kinds of PUMAs: undercover Republicans who are part of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos and their dupes--former Democrats who were well-meaning, but were fooled into abandoning their party by an appeal to a kind of cult of personality. It's now clear that Hillary Clinton rejects that kind of "support" from people who are undermining everything she stands for.

Sunday electoral college projection

I'm starting a new feature here at The Richmond Democrat: the Sunday electoral college roundup. The American people love to look at poll results, and the mainstream media is only too glad to pander to this interest. More often than not, the poll that big corporate media likes to cite most of all is the national presidential poll, a sample of a trivial number of people that has almost no value. Why? Because the national popular vote won't decide the outcome of the election: the electoral college will.

Unfortunately, the big corporate media outlets will persist in putting out national polls with tiny samples, despite the fact that these polls can be deceiving. For example, what good does it do Obama to blow McCain out in New York, Illinois, and California if he loses everywhere else? What good does it do McCain to blow Obama out in Utah, Idaho or Alaska. A blowout in any given state will not result in a candidate receiving any more electoral votes than a narrow win, but it could distort a national poll. Better then to go state by state and award the electoral votes than to look at a made up national poll figure that means nothing.

So from now through the election, I will be surveying the latest state polls from Pollster.com, adding up the electoral votes, and presenting the totals to you. My methodology will be pretty simple. I will look at the Pollster.com data, make note of which candidate is ahead in each state's polls, and award electoral votes accordingly. All tied states will be awarded to John S. McCain. To the extent I depart from this method for any reason, I will disclose it and explain my reasons for doing so under the heading "Special Assumptions." Now, with my reasoning and general assumptions out of the way, let's look at this week's numbers. The electoral college projection for July 13, 2008 is:

Barack H. Obama - 328 Electoral Votes

John S. McCain - 207 Electoral Votes

If the election was held today, it looks as though Barack H. Obama would win by a healthy margin in the electoral college.

Special Assumptions for July 13, 2008:

(1) The latest polls in North Dakota suggest a tie between Obama and McCain. I have therefore awarded North Dakota's 3 electoral votes to John S. McCain.

(2) The latest poll in South Carolina suggests that Bob Barr will siphon off sufficient support from John McCain to throw the state to Barack Obama. I regard this poll with some skepticism, however, so I am awarding South Carolina's 8 electoral votes to John McCain, even though this latest poll suggests he may lose narrowly to Obama.

Major Bush/McCain supporter caught on tape selling access to Bush administration officials

Stephen Payne, a Bush Pioneer who is also a Bush political appointee to a sensitive defense position, has been caught on tape soliciting payments in exchange for access to President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and other members of the Bush administration.

In an undercover video, Payne is seen promising to arrange a meeting for an exiled leader of Krygystan with Dick Cheney or Condoleezza Rice. (Not President Bush because "he doesn’t meet with a lot of former Presidents these days," Payne says. "I don't think he meets with hardly anyone.") All it will take for him to arrange this high-level meeting, says Payne, is "a couple hundred thousand dollars, or something like that":

PAYNE: The exact budget I will come up with. But it will be somewhere between $600,000 and $750,000, with about a third of it going directly to the Bush library. […]

200, 250, something like that. That’s gonna be a show of "we're interested, we're your friends, we're still friends."[1]

You can watch the video of Stephen Payne soliciting money in exchange for access to top level Bush administration officials here.

How close to Bush is Payne? I'm glad you asked.

Bush appointed Payne to the Homeland Security Advisory Council ("HSAC") in August 2007, giving Payne instant access to the Secretary of Homeland Security. But how close are they really? Well, consider this, Payne was Dubya's personal assistant and traveling companion during Bush's father's presidential campaign in 1988 and here's a picture of him clearing brush with Bush on Bush's ranch in Texas.[2]

So, one of Bush's old drinking buddies is selling influence, no surprises here, right? But now Stephen Payne has slithered into bed with the McCain campaign. These are the people that John McCain has surrounded himself with.

I wonder how much Payne will be able to sell access to McCain for?

Hat Tip: Think Progress

McCain lied: Phil Gramm DOES speak for McCain

After Phil Gramm's amazing statement that the United States has become " . . . a Nation of Whiners . . .", John McCain has been trying desparately to backpeddle and claim that he barely knows Phil Gramm and Gramm has nothing to do with McCain or his economic positions. We all should know better:

At a recent meeting with the Wall Street Journal editorial board, Republican presidential candidate John McCain admitted he "doesn't really understand economics" and then pointed to his adviser and former Senate colleague, Phil Gramm - whom he had brought with him to the meeting - as the expert he turns to on the subject, The Huffington Post has learned.

The incident was confirmed by a source familiar with the proceedings of the meeting.

On the campaign trail, McCain has often made light of his lack of economic policy understanding. But his concern over such a shortcoming may be even greater then he has suggested.

This is not the first time McCain has turned to Gramm as a buffer for criticism of his economic views - or lack thereof. Gramm, who regards himself as a budget-balancing, anti-government spending Republican, was brought on board a sputtering McCain campaign last summer. Since then, McCain has staged a political recovery and is now a serious contender for the GOP nomination.

After joining the campaign, Gramm has remained by the candidate's side to "vouch for Mr. McCain's fiscal and security bona fides," according to the Dallas Morning News.[The Huffington Post, January 21, 2008]

We've seen plenty of minor "surrogate-gates" along the way in this election cycle, both Republican and Democratic, but this is the first such contraversy to strike at the very core of a candidate's campaign. Put simply, McCain's domestic policy is what Phil Gramm tells him it is. As lackluster as McCain's domestic and economic policy is, he simply wouldn't have one without Gramm's considerable hand holding. For such a critical advisor to go out and deliver the verbal equivalent of a shotgun blast to both of the McCain campaign feet is notthing short of a disaster. One of McCain's key advisors is now an "untouchable." If McCain throws Gramm under the bus, he's throwing himself under the bus at the same time.

Tony Snow passes

Tony Snow has passed away at age 53. Snow was perhaps best known for his role as George W. Bush's third Press Secretary, a role he handed over to Dana Perino on August 31, 2007, after he was diagnosed with colon cancer.

Snow served Bush faithfully and fought his cancer bravely.

So it goes.