Sunday electoral college analysis
Last week I introduced a new series here at The Richmond Democrat. I will be surveying the latest state polls from Pollster.com, adding up the electoral votes, and presenting the totals to you. To review, my methodology is simple: I look at the Pollster.com data, make note of which candidate is ahead in each state's polls, and award electoral votes accordingly. I award all tied states to John S. McCain. To the extent I depart from this method for any reason, I will disclose it and explain my reasons for doing so under the heading "Special Assumptions." Now, with my reasoning and general assumptions out of the way, let's look at this week's numbers. The electoral college projection for July 20, 2008 is:
Barack H. Obama - 306 Electoral Votes
John S. McCain - 229 Electoral Votes
If the election was held today, it looks as though Barack H. Obama would win by a healthy margin in the electoral college. While the totals have not changed, there has been a major new development in this race that could have a tremendous impact on its outcome. I will be posting on this new development later this evening.
Special Assumptions for July 20, 2008:
(1) The latest polls in North Dakota suggest a tie between Obama and McCain. I have therefore awarded North Dakota's 3 electoral votes to John S. McCain.
(2) The latest poll in South Carolina suggests that Bob Barr will siphon off sufficient support from John McCain to throw the state to Barack Obama. I regard this poll with some skepticism, however, so I am awarding South Carolina's 8 electoral votes to John McCain, even though this latest poll suggests he may lose narrowly to Obama.
Barack H. Obama - 306 Electoral Votes
John S. McCain - 229 Electoral Votes
If the election was held today, it looks as though Barack H. Obama would win by a healthy margin in the electoral college. While the totals have not changed, there has been a major new development in this race that could have a tremendous impact on its outcome. I will be posting on this new development later this evening.
Special Assumptions for July 20, 2008:
(1) The latest polls in North Dakota suggest a tie between Obama and McCain. I have therefore awarded North Dakota's 3 electoral votes to John S. McCain.
(2) The latest poll in South Carolina suggests that Bob Barr will siphon off sufficient support from John McCain to throw the state to Barack Obama. I regard this poll with some skepticism, however, so I am awarding South Carolina's 8 electoral votes to John McCain, even though this latest poll suggests he may lose narrowly to Obama.
Labels: 2008 Presidential Race, Barack Obama, Electoral College Projection, John McCain
1 Comments:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan
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